Final LUA Report 10-27-17LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS
Prepared for:
City of Schertz
141611TWUll 1 I WAMAIZITI
October 2017
Prepared by:
FREESE AND NICHOLS, INC.
2711 North Haskell Avenue, Suite 3300
Dallas, Texas 75204
TABLE OF CONTENTS
1.0
PURPOSE ....................................................................................................................... ............................... 2
1.1
Land Use Assumptions Report Elements ....................................................... ..............................2
2.0
METHODOLOGY ........................................................................................................... ..............................3
3.0
ROADWAY SERVICE AREAS .................................................................................... ..............................4
3.1
Roadway Service Areas ........................................................................................ ............................... 5
3.2
Data Format ............................................................................................................... ..............................6
4.0
HISTORICAL DATA ..................................................................................................... ..............................7
5.0
BASE YEAR DATA ........................................................................................................ ..............................8
5.1
Population Growth ................................................................................................ ............................... 8
5.2
Population Growth Rate ...................................................................................... ............................... 8
5.3
Additional Growth Indicators ............................................................................. ..............................9
5.4
Existing Land Use .................................................................................................. .............................10
5.5
2017 Employment ................................................................................................ .............................11
6.0
TEN -YEAR GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS .............................................................. ...............................
13
6.1
Population 2027 .................................................................................................... .............................14
6.2
Employment 2027 ................................................................................................ .............................17
7.0
SUMMARY .................................................................................................................... .............................18
1.0 PURPOSE
Chapter 395 of the Texas Local Government Code prescribes the process by which cities in Texas must
formulate impact fees. An initial step in the impact fee development process is the establishment of land
use assumptions which address growth and development for a ten -year planning period (TLGC Section
395.001(5)) for the years 2017 -2027. These land use assumptions, which also include population and
employment projections, will become the basis for the preparation of capital improvement plans for
roadway facilities.
Statutory requirements mandate that impact fees be updated (at least) every five years. This report, in
conjunction with the roadway capital improvements plan, form the initial key components of an impact
fee program.
To assist the City of Schertz in determining the need and timing of capital improvements to serve future
development, a reasonable estimation of future growth is required. The purpose of this report is to
formulate growth and development projections based upon assumptions pertaining to the type, location,
quantity and timing of various future land uses within the community and to establish and document the
methodology used for preparing the growth and land use assumptions.
1.1 LAND USE ASSUMPTIONS REPORT ELEMENTS
This report contains the following components:
• Methodology - Explanation of the general methodology used to prepare the land use
assumptions.
• Data Collection Zones and Service Area - Explanation of data collection zones (traffic analysis
zones), and division of the city into impact fee service areas for roadway facilities.
• Historical Data — Information on historic population trends for Schertz and Guadalupe, Bexar,
and Comal Counties.
• Base Year Data - Information on population, employment, and land use for Schertz as of 2015
for each roadway service area.
• Ten -Year Growth Assumptions - Population and employment growth assumptions for ten
years by impact fee service area.
• Summary - Brief synopsis of the land use assumptions report.
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2.0 METHODOLOGY
Based upon the growth assumptions and the capital improvements needed to support growth, it is
possible to develop an impact fee structure which fairly allocates improvement costs to growth areas in
relationship to their impact upon the entire infrastructure system. The data in this report has been
formulated using reasonable and generally accepted planning principles for the preparation of impact fee
systems in Texas.
These land use assumptions and future growth projections take into consideration several factors
influencing development patterns, including the following:
• The character, type, density, and quantity of existing development
• Anticipated future land use (City's Future Land Use Plan Map);
• Availability of land for future expansion;
• Current and historical growth trends of population and development within the city;
• Location and configuration of vacant land;
• Growth of employment per the Alamo Area Metropolitan Planning Organization ( AAMPO);
• Known or anticipated development projects within the city, as identified by City Staff.
A series of work tasks were undertaken in the development of this report and are described below:
1. A kick -off meeting was held to describe the general methodological approach in the study.
2. Current data of population and housing was collected from the city and other acceptable
sources to serve as a basis for future growth.
3. A base year (2017) estimate was developed using city building permit data, U.S. Census and
periodic population, household occupancy and household size data, and employment data
from AAMPO.
4. A growth rate was determined based upon an analysis of data from recent building permit
data, Texas Development Water Board, past growth trends and anticipated development to
occur over the next ten -year planning period. A compound annual growth rate of 3.5% is
recommended for the planning period.
5. A ten -year projection (2027) was prepared using the recommended growth rate, Staff input,
and consideration of the future allocation of population and employment in the AAMPO
regional traffic forecast model. Finally, adjustments were then made to consider known or
anticipated development activity within the ten -year planning period.
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6. Base and ten -year demographics were prepared for the various roadway service areas which,
in turn, correlate with the current municipal limits of Schertz.
3.0 ROADWAY SERVICE
Service areas are required by State Law to define the area served by the Roadway Impact program.
Chapter 395 requires that service areas be defined to ensure that facility improvements are located in
proximity to the area that is generating needs. Roadway service areas are different from
water /wastewater impact fee service areas in that roadway service areas can consider only current city
limits but not the extra - territorial jurisdiction (ETJ) while water /wastewater service areas can include both
the city limits and ETJ. This is primarily because roadway networks are "open" systems to both local and
regional use as opposed to a defined limit of service that is provided within water and wastewater
systems. The result is that new development can only be assessed an impact fee based on the cost of
necessary capital improvements
within that service area.
Chapter 395 stipulates that
roadway service areas be
limited to a six -mile maximum
dimension, but must be limited
to within the current city limits.
Although the roadway service
areas only recognize current
municipal limits, an analysis
including the ETJ was conducted
in order to consider long -term
coverage of the ultimate
corporate boundaries relative
to the six -mile maximum for the
impact fee program. Figure 1
illustrates the roadway impact
fee service areas within the ETJ.
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3.1 ROADWAY SERVICE AREAS
Figure 2 illustrates the derived service area structure for roadway facilities. These service areas conform
to the current city limits of Schertz.
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3.2 DATA FORMAT
The existing database, as well as the future projections, was formulated according to the following format
and categories:
Service Area Correlates to the roadway service areas identified on the attached map. The city
limits serve as the roadway service area boundary.
Housing Units (2017) All living units including single - family, duplex, multi - family and group quarters
existing at the middle of 2017. The number of existing housing units has been
estimated for the base year (2017) population estimate.
Housing Units (2027) Projected housing units by service zone for the year 2027 (ten -year growth
projections).
Population (2017) Existing estimated population for the base year (2017).
Population (2027) Projected population by service zone for the year 2027 (ten -year growth
projection).
Employment (2017 -27) Employment data is aggregated to three employment sectors and include Basic,
Retail and Service, as provided by AAM PO. These service sectors serve as the basis
for nonresidential trip generation. The following details which types of businesses
fall within each of the three sectors.
Service -- Land use activities which provide personal and professional services
such as financial, insurance, government, and other professional and
administrative offices.
Retail -- Land use activities which provide for the retail sale of goods that primarily
serve households and whose location choice is oriented toward the household
sector such as grocery stores, restaurants, etc.
Basic -- Land use activities that produce goods and services such as those that are
exported outside the local economy; manufacturing, construction,
transportation, wholesale trade, warehousing and other industrial uses.
AAMPO prepares employment estimates at the Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) level, but some adjustments
were needed to consider areas within the limits of the city.
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Figure 3: Historic Population Growth; City
of Schertz, Comal County and Guadalupe
County, and Bexar County
35,000
30,0(}0
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,OW
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HISTORICAL
Schertz is located approximately 16 miles
northeast of downtown San Antonio and lies in
Guadalupe, Bexar, and Comal Counties. Over the
past several years, the Alamo Area region has
experienced steady population and employment
growth.
Figure 3 depicts the historic population growth for
the City of Schertz and Comal, Guadalupe, and
Bexar Counties. Comal and Guadalupe Counties
have maintained steady growth over the last 40
years with compound annual growth rates (CAGR)
around 3.5 percent. Meanwhile, Bexar County,
which encompasses the City of San Antonio has
maintained a slower growth rate of 1.8 percent.
The City of Schertz's population statistics begin in
1990. Between 1990 and 2010, population growth
was steady with a CAGR between 3.5 and 4.5
percent. All indicators suggest that the city and
regional population growth will continue in the
near future.
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5.0 BASE YEAR T
This section provides information and documents
the data used to derive the 2017 base year
population estimate for the City of Schertz.
5.1 POPULATION GROWTH
One method of predicting future growth is
looking at past growth. Schertz has experienced
steady growth over the past decade. Past growth
trends from the U.S. Census were examined in
conjunction with single family building permit
data from the city (Figure 4).
The city estimates a 2016 population estimate of
39,453 residents in Schertz using the U.S. Census
Intercensal population data of previous years.
5.2 POPULATION GROWTH RATE
A compound annual growth rate (CAGR) allows
for a general assessment of growth, considering
periodic increases and decreases in residential
population growth coinciding with changing
economic conditions. Various sources were used
to derive past growth rates (Table 1). These
sources indicated rates of growth between 2.6
and 4.1 percent. Based upon this data, analysis
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Figure 4: Schertz Population Growth Trends
Table 1: Growth Rates
Source Growth
U.S. Census (5- Year)* 3.4%
U.S. Census (10- Year) ** 3.5%
Future Growth Projection 3.5%
*CAGR Based on 2011 -2016 Intercensal Data
* *CAGR Based on 2006 -2016 Intercensal Data
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Figure 5: Historic New Building Permits
Source: City of Schertz Building Permits
Table 2. Regional Growth Comparison
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of 10 -year forecasts, and City Staff input, a 3.5
percent compound annual growth rate was
determined to be an appropriate assumption
for the 10 -year study period. It is believed to
account for periods of rapid and stable growth
expected to occur in the future. This rate was
recommended by the Schertz Capital
Improvements Advisory Committee on May 13,
2015.
5.3 ADDITIONAL GROWTH
INDICATORS
Residential building permit data is also an
indicator of recent growth trends. Cumulative
single family residential building permits issued
since 2000 are shown in Figure S. Annual single
family residential building permits are shown to
the left, depicting the overall trend in annual
permits. Although building permits issued
decreased after 2003, the issuance has
remained steady over the last few of years.
From 2011 to 2016, the trend shows a rate that
will maintain permit issuance and growth in the
future.
Local population projections shown in Table 2
indicate that growth will continue in Schertz in
the future. These population projections from
the Texas Water Development Board (TWDB),
City of Schertz Parks Plan and City of Schertz
Population Projections indicate robust growth is
likely and will continue for the next 35 years.
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5.4 EXISTING LAND USE
In any evaluation and projection of future land use patterns, a documentation of existing conditions is
essential. Analysis of existing land use patterns was prepared based on Schertz's 2013 Sector Plan and
2002 Comprehensive Plan, which includes current city limits and the ET1. This also serves to document the
present physical condition of the city with regard to any infrastructure deficiencies that may exist.
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5.5 2017 EMPLOYMENT
2017 base employment was calculated using
data from AAMPO. This information
provided a breakout of employment by
Traffic Analysis Zone (TAZ) for 2010. Figure 6
shows the location of the TAZs in each
service area. For assumption purposes, these
numbers were grown uniformly with specific
adjustments made to TAZs to match
estimates provided bythe city. It is important
to note that the TAZs do not follow city limits
in some locations, so adjustments were
made based on the locations of existing land
uses and upon the percentage of each TAZ
located within city limits. AAMPO
employment data was categorized as basic,
retail, and service (see page 6 for a
description of the employment categories).
Using this data, the total employment could
be found for basic, retail and service
businesses in each service area (SA). Table 3
details 2017 employment within Schertz's
city limits for each TAZ.
Table 3. 2017 Employment by Service Area
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6.0 TEN-YEAR GROWTH ASSUMPTIONS
Projected growth has been characterized in two forms: population and employment. A series of
assumptions were made to arrive at reasonable growth rates for population and employment. The
following assumptions have been made as a basis from which ten -year projections could be initiated.
• Future land uses will occur based on similar trends of the past and consistent with the Future
Land Use Plan Map,
• The city will be able to finance the necessary improvements to accommodate growth,
• School facilities will accommodate increases in population, and
• Densities will be as projected in the Sector Plans.
The ten -year projections are based upon the 3.5 percent growth rate discussed earlier and considers past
trends of the city. This rate corresponds with the historical average growth rate and the amount of growth
expected over the next ten years. Table 4 details the ten -year population projection.
Table 4. Year 2017 and 2027 Service Area Population and Dwelling Units
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6.1 POPULATION 2027
The city has experienced steady growth over the past
decade. The city's 2000 population stood at just over
18,000 residents. By the end of the decade, Schertz's
population neared 32,000 in 2010 and a current
2017 estimate of 40,339. Although population
estimates from the ETJ cannot be taken into account
when calculating land use assumptions, the growing
population within the ETJ should be monitored as
the city plans its future. Using a 3.5 percent
compound annual growth rate, the projected 2027
population for the city is 56,902 (Figure 7).
Figure 7: Ten -Year Population Growth Projection
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Table 5: Projected Dwelling Unit Estimations
Avg. No. of Annual Permits: 581
Building permit calculations were derived using
the U.S. Census information of 2.85 persons per
household and base year population estimate.
Between 2004 and 2014, the city issued an average
of 377 building permits a year with the highest
number of permits, 535, being issued in 2005 and
the lowest number of permits, 254, issued in 2012.
The city may average 581 new dwelling units a year
over the next ten -year period (Table 5 and Figure
8). This average number is reflective of the type of
construction which would likely occur based upon
population projections and are accounting for both
single - family and multi - family construction.
Figure 8: Projected Dwelling Unit Estimations
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An additional factor affecting overall population growth within Schertz is the construction of The
Crossvine, a planned development in the southern sector of Schertz east of FM 1518. The master plan for
this area includes between 2,300 and 2,400 single - family homes.
The Crossvine Development
The City has been reviewing its Comprehensive Plan and Future Land Use Plan in the area to the west of
the Crossvine. This area is south of Randolph Air Force Base and is impacted by restrictions based on the
Air Impact Compatible Use Zones (AICUZ) as outlined in the Joint Base San Antonio (JBSA) Randolph Joint
Land Use Study (JLUS). The recently updated JBSA Randolph JLUS recommends significantly reduced
residential densities for this area. Additionally, a lack of sewer capacity and concerns about allowing septic
systems on half acre lots will likely reduce densities in this area from what is designated on the Future
Land Use Plan. As sewer capacity is provided to the area to the east of FM 1518 pressure for corresponding
increases in densities will likely continue to be experienced. Continuing residential development pressure
in the northern part of Schertz, along IH -35 as well as pressure along IH -35 from New Braunfels in the
north will impact the distribution of development, resulting in population and employment growth,
around the City.
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6.2 EMPLOYMENT 2027
Employment data for the year 2027 was
based upon data provided by AAMPO and
the City of Schertz. Data from AAMPO in
the years 2025 and 2040 was used to
interpolate the projected year 2027. The
data was then adjusted to match growth
rate and allocation expectations by the
City. The 2027 employment by TAZ as
listed in Table 6.
It is important to note that TAZs do not
follow city limits. City Staff input was
received to verify employment
assumptions in each TAZ regarding
known or anticipated development to
occur, projections of future land use
needs and employee projections within
each TAZ located within city limits. The
employment numbers in Table 6 show
the derived employment of each TAZ
within Schertz's municipal boundary.
Over 5,000 jobs are forecasted to be
added to the city over the ten -year
planning period and represents an
increase of 45 percent. This increase
corresponds to an annual growth rate of
3.8 percent.
Table 6. 2025 Employment by Service Area
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7.0 SUMMARY
• The existing 2017 population for Schertz stands at approximately 40,339 persons, with an
existing estimated employment of 11,201 jobs.
• An average annual growth rate of 3.5 percent was used to calculate the Schertz ten -year
growth projections. This growth rate is based upon the State Water Board Projections, the
Parks Plan, City forecasts, historical U.S. Census data, as well as Building Permit information
received from the City.
• Ten -year (2027) population growth is forecasted to be 56,902 persons, with an employment
of 16,247 jobs.
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Table 7. Land Use Assumptions 2017 -2027 Summary
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'Population
Schertz Total
44;5
56,9f}2
16;a6
3.Si
Service Area 1
9,239
12,211
2,972
2.8%
Service Area 2
28,280
32,169
3,889
1.3%
Service Area 3
2,809
12,454
9,645
16.1%
Servi c Area 4
11
68
57
20.0%
Dwelling Units;
Schertz Total
14,407
24;322
Service Area 1
3,300
4,361
1,061
2.8%
Service Area 2
10,100
11,489
1,389
1.3%
Service Area 3
1,003
4,448
3,445
16.1%
Service Area 4
4
24
20
20.0%
Employment
5chertzTotal
11,201.
16,247
:5,046
3:
Service Area 1
2,206
3,812
1,606
5.6%
Basic
1,120
1,814
694
4.9%
Reta i 1
468
785
317
5.3%
Service
618
1,213
595
7.0%
Servi ceArea 2
8,587
11,304
2,717
2.8%
Basic
3,287
5,038
1,751
4.4%
Reta i 1
2,449
2,996
547
2.0%
Service
2,851
3,270
419
1.4%
Servi ceArea 3
408
1,111
703
103%
Basic
232
597
365
9.9%
Reta i 1
108
340
232
12.2%
Service
68
174
106
9.9%
Servi c Area 4
0
20
20
Basic
0
0
0
-
Reta i 1
0
0
0
-
Service
0
20
20
-
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